Oh Wait, Nevermind

Goldman and Sachs (pictured above), the prominent Wall Street bank, has posted that it is likely to have made $2 billion profits in the March-June period. That's $2 billion profits, above and beyond the rest of the money they spent to run their unholy operation. They're posting estimates for their profits from March through June, which means they literally have more money than they can count. I don't know how much money I have either, but that's just due to the subliminal terror I have of checking my current account that impels me again and again to press "No." when offered a receipt at cashpoints. And Goldman and Sachs made $2 billion in profits since March.

Happy Monday, everyone.

In other depressing news, the Honduran coup that ousted Manuel Zelaya and instated serial coup-monger Roberto Micheletti is not at all likely to be overturned. The OAS has not yet accepted Micheletti, but it will probably only hold out for another week or two before "starting talks", implicitly recognising that Micheletti is now the de facto, and soon de jure leader of the country (Official Politic Blunder prediction).

Let's not even get into Iran, which major news outlets have pretty much completely stopped reporting on. This was only to be expected, as the thrill of having absolutely no news to report because of the total media blackout imposed by the government gives way to the realisation that there is absolutely no news to report. But like I said, I'm not going to get into Iran.

Television holds no solace either. Pakistani MTV was showing a really bad band fronted by an ugly woman ripping off Evanescence's "Everybody's a Fool", a really bad song, down to the last note, really badly.

Clearly Evanescence must have known about this, and sold them the rights to their song (and soul). Which is almost worse than coups in Honduras and brutal government repression in Iran. Almost.

Returning to the issue of Goldman and Sachs, Rolling Stone columnist Matthew Taibbi described Goldman as "a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money." The hilarious thing about this is that Goldman didn't dismiss this as a malicious characterisation or metaphor, but as a conspiracy theory. Which means they're seriously worried that people might start thinking that's actually how they make $2 billion in profits in 3 months.

Which would make more sense than all this "derivatives" and "risk management" hocus-pocus they keep foisting down our throats.

Who Will Monitor the Monitors?

Luis Herrero, a Spanish member of the EU Parliament, has been detained and will be expelled from Venezuela following critical remarks he made concerning Hugo Chavez's continuing electoral bid to get everyone in Venezuela to agree that he's a great guy and should remain in power for the rest of his life. 

Chavez (pictured above demanding another cookie), had previously invited Herrero to monitor the referendum that would allow Chavez to legally rig elections for the rest of his life. 

Chavez has done this exact same thing with Jose Miguel Vivanco of Human Rights Watch, who was also called to monitor conditions in Venezuela, leading experts to wonder why Chavez keeps inviting people to check him out when he insists on acting blatantly dictatorial all the time.

The World's Jonesin' for Lithium, and Bolivia is the Mack Daddy

Lithium has become one of the hottest new accessories for multinational automobile conglomerates, with Mitsubishi, Sumitomo and Ford all chomping at the bit to get to the mostly unexplored reserves of the substance, traditionally only used to power shit calculators. 

Bolivia happens to possess up to 54% of the world's Lithium deposits (pictured above in the hellish landscape of the Uyune Salt Flats), which caused the USA to freak out, as evidenced by this article in the Herald Tribune (link). 

The article is clearly slightly panicked at the fact that Bolivia's socialist leader Evo Morales doesn't really like the USA, and is also interested in ensuring that "indigenous groups here in the remote salt desert share in the eventual bounty". This is terrible news for Oji Baba of Mistubishi's glamorous Base Metals Unit, who worries that "if we want to be a force in the next wave of automobiles and the batteries that power them, we must be here".

Here's to hoping that Morales doesn't give in to the wave of threats and wheedling from the car manufacturers of the world, and fights for Bolivia's right to use its national resources to achieve equitable economic development (also, to party). 

Bolivia's New Constitution - Actually A Good Idea

Bolivia yesterday approved its new constitution by a fairly large margin, with 60% voting yes on the document, whose main features are greater rights for indigenous groups and greater powers for the president.

Criticism is already piling up for Evo Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president, and a very controversially leftist figure in an incredibly polarised country where the wealthy, rich, and very white minority control Eastern portions of Bolivia, as opposed to the vast majority of poor indigenous Bolivians that form the hinterland. The constitution is being framed as a vaguely Chavez-esque power-grab, yet another ill-fated foray into socialism that simply won't work.

But the constitution itself (see a summary here) is really quite good. The proposed changes give greater rights to self-determination for the country's 36 indigenous groups, as well as reserving them a seat in Congress. Land tenure has had a (fairly high) ceiling imposed to curb landowner domination, religious and sexual freedom is guaranteed (which the rich white Catholics are really freaking out over), and the Supreme Court has been reformed such that judges are now popularly elected, rather than appointed by Congress. All in all, these seem like reasonable, fair changes, actually intended to improve the country. The only cynical rider is Morales's change of the re-election rules, which normally allow a maximum two non-consecutive terms. Morales has changed this to allow two consecutive terms, instead. This is unfortunate, but a long way from Chavez and his dreams of being president-for-life.

But that doesn't mean the constitution won't be bad for the country. Bolivia's natural gas wealth is concentrated in the rich, white-dominated regions of Santa Cruz and its surroundings, and the opposition leaders there seem more than willing to tear the country apart before accepting a more prominent role for socialism or the marginalised indigenous groups. Morales needs to offer something to these constituents too. He can't survive long if he insists on implementing reforms in spite of a third of his country.

A Warranted Strop

Everyone's favourite Latin American semi-demagogues are at it again! At least that's what one would think from the headlines saying that both Evo Morales, President of Bolivia, and Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela, have expelled their respective Israeli ambassadors from their countries and broken off normal diplomatic relations with them. This seems like just the sort of stunt they would pull, along with condemning the USA for their inability to establish a socialist utopia, or the sogginess of their cereal.

But it is warranted. Israel's actions should make it an international pariah, and in these circumstances, Venezuela and Bolivia are the only executives acting with a modicum of sanity. Having normal diplomatic relations with Israel is tantamount to agreeing that the actions of the government are justified, or that they constitute a technical difficulty (Will Hamas stop firing bottle rockets with no houses? No children? No hands?), rather than a moral wrong.

Hats off to them, for noting that this conflict, which has killed over 1000 Palestinians and four Israelis, was not only completely unnecessary, and entirely counterproductive. Importantly, it was also very, very wrong.  

Anti-Social Socialist Socialites

On Sunday state elections were held in Venezuela, one of the most oil-rich countries in Latin America. Hugo Chavez, the loudly socialist leader of that country, suffered heavy losses for the first time in his 10 year rule, losing 5 out of 22 states to the opposition, including the capital city, Caracas. This may be the turning point that the Venezuelan opposition to Chavez has been waiting for.

Chavez (shown here belittling George Bush's manhood: 'Even with binoculars I cannot see it!') is famous for his populist demagoguery, notable even by Latin American standards. What's remarkable about this latest challenge to his power is that it looks like Chavez will be defeated through the mobilisation of voters and through electoral mechanisms, rather than a messy coup.  The Venezuelan opposition has been steadily garnering support through its efficient administration of urban slums, allowing it to cut through much of the ideological nonsense put forth by Chavez's party. The latest financial crisis and the now decreasing price of oil have also put strain on Chavez's populist policies of direct transfers to the poor, revealing the fragility of oil states which systematically placate the disenfranchised by handing out oil cash. This is not a stable or desirable state of affairs, and this is becoming increasingly obvious.

The situation in Venezuela has some parallels to the situation in Thailand that both my Politic Blunder readers will be intimately familiar with by now. Both involve a populist leader with strong support among the rural poor, and both are being opposed by the dissatisfaction of the urban bourgeoisie. The difference between the two situations is that in Thailand the opposition has chosen to make dangerous and undemocratic demands, calling for a 70% unelected parliament and begging the military to stage a coup. In Venezuela, the opposition is now trying to oust Chavez by mobilising voters, providing real administrative alternatives to his rule, and calling for a constructive dialogue, 'from being an 'anti-Chavez' movement to being a 'pro-' movement', in the words of Leopoldo Lopez, one of the opposition leaders. 

Chavez is a deeply dangerous, undemocratic leader whose policies to help the poor have been little more than shallow salves. He continually campaigns to amend the constitution to allow himself to serve for more terms than he should, and has a long history of hostility towards democratic opposition, including shutting down critical television stations and vowing to arrest the opposition's main leader, Manuel Rosales. It seems increasingly likely that he will be toppled, but one can only hope that the killing blow will come from the ballot box rather than the barracks.

 

Socialism in Latin America, Take #42132

Bolivia's socialist, pro-indigenous president Evo Morales, pictured left demon-strating the size of his 'national pride for Bolivia'(see below), has made progress in attempts to stabilise the situation in his country, which has in recent months been gripped by protests on the part of representatives of the richer regions of Bolivia. Provinces like Tarija, which contains much of Bolivia's considerable natural gas wealth, are balking at Morales's plans to address Bolivia's huge inequalities by distributing gas wealth more evenly between regions. The renewed attempts at dialogue came after violent protests ended with the deaths of 15 pro-government farmers, and the declaration of martial law in the region of Pando. 

Bolivia's crisis stems from a problem endemic to the vast majority of Latin American countries, the sharp inequality between indigenous, rural workers, and the mostly white middle and upper class. The unique thing about Bolivia is that it is the only country in Latin America where the indigenous are actually the majority, forming 65% of Bolivia's population. Evo Morales took power on a pro-indigenous, pro-worker platform, and this has ruffled the economic and political supremacy of the ruling class in Bolivia, leading to the protests and a continuing row with the US, which naturally supports the anti-government protesters. Morales's expulsion of Philip Goldberg, the US ambassador to La Paz, due to accusations that he was aiding the violent anti-government protest movements seems paranoid, but is perhaps understandable given the US's history in Latin America.

Managing a conflict between the middle class and working class of a country is heavy shit, especially when there is as much social, economic, and racial division between the two sides as there is in Bolivia. Citizens of wealthy regions of the country see no reason why their wealth should be taken away from them, and feel out of touch with a president who is unashamedly working in the interests of the country's indigenous poor. Morales has fought his entire career to better the lot of the indigenous peoples in his country, and his goals of land reform and wealth redistribution are laudable. But he needs to present these economic changes on a more accessible platform that promises dividends for all members of society. The only problem is if he continues to go down the path of demagoguery and populism that led him to take Hugo Chávez, the fattest thorn in the USA's side, as his closest ally. Morales is still a promising politician, and his socialist goals are achievable (and really awesome), but not without the cooperation of the entire population.

ALTERNATIVE THINGS MORALES IS DEMONSTRATING THE SIZE OF

-A fish he caught last week

-The amount up to which he has 'had it'

-How big Barbara Bush's ass is, seen from behind

-The length of the sub sandwich he desires from the Bolivian people

-His penis.