The World Is Still Round

To finish up catching up on the week's news, Politic Blunder will do one better and look at people predicting the future. It is a tradition at The Economist  to print an issue at the end of the year with lots of well-informed predictions about the coming year. This £5.50 issue is worth a place in your toilet, as it has a lot of useful and nifty financial information and some interesting articles written by world leaders, CEOs, and Third World presidents.

The real reason to get it, though, is the predictive articles themselves. Some snippets from The Economist's perfected the art of self-evident prophecy:

-In Iraq: 'Arguments over the pace of American withdrawal will persist'

-In Australia: 'The world's second-dryest continent is running out of water'

-In Africa: 'A better future for sub-Saharan Africa depends on better policies'

-In the USA: 'Obama will have to learn how to say no'

In 2009, women across the world will have to learn to say no to me, but will be inexplicably unable to. 

Quite Simply Crossing the Line

In Thailand, the stupidly named Popular Alliance for Democracy (PAD) has been occupying the Bangkok Suvarnabhumi airport for the past few days. This has paralysed flights, stranded hundreds of passengers, and looks to be on the way to crippling Thailand's credibility as a stable country to visit as a tourist or as an investor. The PAD has been causing problems for Thailand's politics for months now, as either of my Politic Blunder readers can attest to. After their general protests, and their continuing occupation of government buildings in Bangkok, the middle and upper-class movement of the disgruntled rich in a mostly poor country has upped the stakes by taking up arms, occupying an airport and explicitly stating that if they are shot at by riot police 'they will shoot back' . 

The presence of two thousand protesters, many of which are armed, occupying a capital city's airport is cause for a forcible breakup of the protest. They have repeatedly refused offers of dialogue, insisting that all their demands must be met without precondition or negotiation. This is not a social movement, or a 'popular alliance'. An armed group that refuses to engage in peaceful politics? I believe most of the world already has a term for this kind of organisation. People are scared in Bangkok. There have been smatterings of gunfire throughout the city, and even the ostensibly tough-as-nails brick shithouse muay thai tourists are being advised to stay home.  

The PAD has probably managed to evade forcible dispersion so far for two main reasons. Firstly, Somchai Wongsawat, the embattled PM, wants desperately to avoid violence, as he knows this would both reflect badly on him, and the country as a whole. Thailand is relatively prone to coups, but it has still managed to retain a reputation as a peaceful and stable country, which is why it's become such a hub of tourism and investment in the area. Wongsawat doesn't want to damage this. The second reason is that elements in the army and police may well be sympathetic to the PAD. After all, the PAD has been calling on the army to violently depose Wongsawat for months now, and as in most developing countries, the army has more political ambitions than it really should. 

Let's just hope that the Thai riot police grows a pair and realises that its hand is being forced. No one in England or the USA would complain that the government is being oppressive by forcibly dispersing an armed occupation of the airport. It is well within the remit of Wongsawat to do so, and it is increasingly looking like his duty.

Settling Dust

There is as of yet very little information on the details of the Mumbai terrorist attacks, so I won't really comment on the implications or the causes of them yet. The first funerals of the 195 dead have started.

This doesn't look to be the seismic event that 9/11 was, despite the fact that a fair number of people from the First World died, too. What is especially tragic is how this many people would never have died were it a hotel in Belgium or London that was besieged, just as an earthquake that is a minor inconvenience in Tokyo or Beijing will kill thousands in Pakistan or rural China. Ten youths with a few hundred rounds and some grenades should never have been able to kill hundreds and stall the military might of one sixth of the world's population.

Through NATO's Glass, Very, Very Darkly

You may remember the US-led invasion of Afghanistan, in 2001, was conducted for two main reasons. The first, ostensibly, was to capture Osama bin-Laden and take vengeance on a foreign country for the deaths of thousands of innocent Americans. The perception was largely that 'someone has to pay', and in their blindly hateful haste, the US government was compelled to choose Afghanistan. 

The second reason, enunciated more loudly once the 9/11 bloodlust had faded somewhat, was that Afghanistan was under the grip of a powerfully oppressive and undemocratic regime, the Taliban. We were flooded with pictures of Afghan women wearing intimidatingly complete veils, and stories of them being beaten for trying to go to school, or even going outside unescorted by a family member. The war, we are now told, was always a war of liberation and salvation, a generous attempt to bring liberal democracy to the most disposessed reaches of Central Asia.

Today three NATO officials revealed that its public affairs office in Afghanistan, which deals with press releases and official documentation, will be merged with its information warfare and 'psy ops' office. This office has two categories. There is the Information Operations office, which publishes and distributes information designed to demoralise the opposition (examples of this include the leafleting back in WWII up until today, whereby millions of leaflets were dropped from the sky indicating that enemy combatants would surely lose if they did not give themselves up immediately.) Then there is the tres cool abbreviated 'psy ops' which deals with 'black operations', or outright deception and propaganda. These are the offices that will be merged with the organ of NATO that gives press releases and informs its constituents of what is going on.

This blog has talked a lot about building healthy democratic institutions and working at them even when it may seem counterintuitive or unproductive. Transparency is one of the most important building blocks of any democracy. Accountability is impossible without transparency, and true representative democracy is impossible without accountability. What NATO is doing now in Afghanistan may be expedient, but it is damaging the foundations of what they are trying to build in the country. Creating a liberal democracy ex nihilo in a country that until recently had no conception of either the State or democracy is a big enough job without frustrated military officials fucking it up for the politicians.

Anti-Social Socialist Socialites

On Sunday state elections were held in Venezuela, one of the most oil-rich countries in Latin America. Hugo Chavez, the loudly socialist leader of that country, suffered heavy losses for the first time in his 10 year rule, losing 5 out of 22 states to the opposition, including the capital city, Caracas. This may be the turning point that the Venezuelan opposition to Chavez has been waiting for.

Chavez (shown here belittling George Bush's manhood: 'Even with binoculars I cannot see it!') is famous for his populist demagoguery, notable even by Latin American standards. What's remarkable about this latest challenge to his power is that it looks like Chavez will be defeated through the mobilisation of voters and through electoral mechanisms, rather than a messy coup.  The Venezuelan opposition has been steadily garnering support through its efficient administration of urban slums, allowing it to cut through much of the ideological nonsense put forth by Chavez's party. The latest financial crisis and the now decreasing price of oil have also put strain on Chavez's populist policies of direct transfers to the poor, revealing the fragility of oil states which systematically placate the disenfranchised by handing out oil cash. This is not a stable or desirable state of affairs, and this is becoming increasingly obvious.

The situation in Venezuela has some parallels to the situation in Thailand that both my Politic Blunder readers will be intimately familiar with by now. Both involve a populist leader with strong support among the rural poor, and both are being opposed by the dissatisfaction of the urban bourgeoisie. The difference between the two situations is that in Thailand the opposition has chosen to make dangerous and undemocratic demands, calling for a 70% unelected parliament and begging the military to stage a coup. In Venezuela, the opposition is now trying to oust Chavez by mobilising voters, providing real administrative alternatives to his rule, and calling for a constructive dialogue, 'from being an 'anti-Chavez' movement to being a 'pro-' movement', in the words of Leopoldo Lopez, one of the opposition leaders. 

Chavez is a deeply dangerous, undemocratic leader whose policies to help the poor have been little more than shallow salves. He continually campaigns to amend the constitution to allow himself to serve for more terms than he should, and has a long history of hostility towards democratic opposition, including shutting down critical television stations and vowing to arrest the opposition's main leader, Manuel Rosales. It seems increasingly likely that he will be toppled, but one can only hope that the killing blow will come from the ballot box rather than the barracks.

 

On the 'Lighter' Side of the News...

I'm sure you've heard the Canadian Supreme Court has upheld the 'one-person-one-fare' ruling for its airlines, meaning that obese people have the right to commandeer as many seats as their grossly distended gut will occupy. While it's great fun imagining this sort of vast amoeba-like diffusion, and it's even more fun looking up pictures of the morbidly yet gleefully obese people on google, this law is pretty stupid, in essence.

Next time you're on any sort of Canadian bus, claim that your hand is an integral part of your body that nonetheless requires the seat adjacent to you. They won't be able to touch you. 

Your brave Politic Blunder correspondent will be testing this out in his upcoming visit to Canada by demanding that every seat on the plane be reserved for him and his gargantuan ego.

Congo Warlord gets New York Times Stooge

The UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations has just approved another 3000 troops for MONUC, the contingent that is desperately trying to restore some semblance of order to the blood-slicked provinces of North and East Congo. This will bring the contingent up to about 20 000 soldiers, the largest in the world, although there are concerns that the reinforcements will not be deployed quickly enough. 

For those for whom African crises seem to blend into one another (most of us), this particular crisis springs from the sudden desire General Laurent Nkunda had to seize power in the country. He therefore started a rebellion that has to date killed thousands and forced a quarter of a million people to pack up their nonexistent shit and leave after their houses have been burned down or requisitioned by armed men ('displaced').

The news is, though, that the New York Times has printed an article by Jeffrey Gettleman about Nkunda and his rebels. This article asks if the rebels will be able to effictively administer the country, and remarks worriedly that they seem more comfortable 'in boots than in suits'. The whole article has a mildly comical spin to it, painting out the Congolese rapist-murderer-cum-rebels as bumbling ineffectual administrators, 'breathing a sigh of relief' after delivering their first uncertain speech to a crowd of 'displaced' civilians. You can't blame them, poor things, they're more used to forcing children to rape their sisters before forcing them to join their armed forces than they are giving high-falutin' political speeches.

Jeffrey Gettleman needs to remember, before writing an article about the comedy potential of a soldiers trying to do politics, that the crisis in the Congo is the most urgent and tragic one in the world, at present. If Laurent Nkunda had any legitimate political or democratic claim to the power-sharing talks he's demanding (which he doesn't), it would have been obviated by his blatant and consistent use of extortion, mass murder, gang rape, and gross violations of children's noncombatant status. Writing an article like Jeffrey Gettleman's article accomplishes two things. It gives Nkunda's rebellion an undue air of legitimacy by prompting speculation as to how they will rule (and the article itself inexplicably implies that Nkunda's rebels might be better for the people than the incumbent government), and it trivialises the entire affair. 

There is no reason to even consider legitimising Nkunda or his rebellion. Africa, and especially the DRC, desperately needs some sort of institutional stability, a solid framework in which political goals can be obtained. No one, especially no one at the NY Times, should be normalising this situation. A BBC report today told of a 17 year-old mother whose 3 year-old daughter had been gang raped. Maybe Jeffrey Gettleman would like to tell us the punch line in this story.

Petulance at the Highest Levels

  One hour after losing his presidential immunity, the authorities were upon Chen Shui Bian, former president of Taiwan, on allegations of massive corruption and abuse of power. It turns out he had wired millions of dollars to Swiss bank accounts under the guise of 'special expenses', and after fighting hard to stop his successor, Ma Ying-Jeou, from declassifying the relevant documents, in August he admitted to everything, saying:

'My conscience has told me that I cannot continue to lie to myself or to others, so I wil choose to be bluntly honest:I have in the past committed deeds that are against the rule of the law, and I am willing, for all campaign finance dishonesty from my four elections for mayor and my election for president, to apologise.'

Clearly, though, he expected that an apology is all that is expected from an ex-president guilty of massive corruption and abuse of power. He said sorry! So it evidently came as a huge surprise when instead of the public weepily telling him that they understand his motives and don't blame him at all, the Taiwanese authorities arrested him on charges of massive corruption and abuse of power. An outraged Chen Shui Bian today announced that he would go on a hunger strike to protest 'being put in jail as a sacrifice to appease China'. 

This story is only remarkable in that Chen Shui Bian is clearly genuinely offended and baffled as to why he is being arrested and charged, and that he clearly thinks that his apology was punishment enough for stealing and laundering over $31 million. This kind of culture among ruling elites obtains elsewhere, too. In June this year the Italian pig-farm that makes our laws passed a legislation that gave the top four positions in Italian government immunity from prosecution. This dovetails nicely with PM Berlusconi's keen interest in evading prosecution for massive corruption, abuse of power, mafia connections, and accessory to murder. It's good to see that in Taiwan at least, the people are still green enough to the concept of democracy that they are willing to 'besiege the president's office' and demand their money back.

In tomorrow's news: Chen Shui Bian announces that he will 'hold his breath really hard until you drop the charges.'

A Mythic Hope and a Brightening Dawn - A Politic Blunder Feature

I can think of few people who last night were not nailed to the front of their televisions, or nervously clicking the refresh button over and over, or drinking to excess. I was doing all three. Obama's election means a lot to black Americans, and it means a lot to the soldiers in Iraq, on either side. The internet has been awash with testimonies and open letters to this effect. But it bears a special and separate significance to the rest of the world. Obama gave us a short few lines at the closing end of his speech, affirming that we had a shared destiny, with the caveat that it would be under a 'dawn of American leadership'. 

So what fate the billions of non-Americans who hope for not just a change within America, but a change between America and the rest of the world? I am but one small Italian student in London, ostensibly with no stake or power in the events that shape the so-called 'Leader of the Free World'. Obama's presidency means first and foremost the end of the Bush era. Neoconservatism, John Bolton's psychotic proclamations of the primacy of US interests 'above all else', two destructive and unsuccessful wars, and an unhealthy redolence of the Cold War with China and Russia. These were all hallmarks of the Bush doctrine, and we can hope to see these things disappear from American discourse under a successful Obama presidency. America has long been aware that the world despises it, but it is now becoming aware of the fact that this matters. 

Obama is a thoughtful man, and one who clearly prides himself on his intelligence, which is more than can be said for either Bush or the Republican candidate. This, along with his rhetoric of change and his policy promise of negotiations without preconditions mean that we can look forward to a USA that engages with the world more as a participant in the world community, rather than regarding us as either accomplices to their interests or terrorists. Obama's affirmation that this new dawn was one of American leadership was politically inevitable, but it remains disappointing. America should not have to rely on its sense of entitlement and exceptionalism for its identity. I believe we may see change in this direction in the next four years.

Almost as intense as the optimism and hope that swelled following news of Obama's victory was a hard knuckle of cynicism and doubt. You can always count on some pundits to try to take a negative spin on any overwhelmingly hopeful and positive turn of events just to appear more nuanced and sophisticated than those poor naive who truly believe things are worth being happy about sometimes. These commentators point to the huge problems the world still faces. The continuing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the continuing shitstorm in Sub-Saharan Africa, and a big fuckoff financial crisis that has everyone not only scared for their lives and livelihoods, but collectively embarassed by how little we understand about the forces that control our homes and our markets. 

The pundits are idiots to be cynical about Obama. If anything, we should be more hopeful and optimistic that this kind of starkly positive change happened right when the world truly needed it. Of course no one expects Obama to actually be a messianic figure that will solve world poverty and beat Osama Bin-Laden at Street Fighter Alpha 3. But everyone who is genuinely happy that Obama won and thinks that things will get better from now on is far better an analyst of political opinion than either the grim naysayers of the high-minded broadsheets, or Gore Vidal.

An Obituary and then some Pie

The Red Ring of Death has finally struck my Xbox 360, putting it out of commission for the last time. It's had a good run, seeing as I bought it over three years ago when it first came out, and since then it's given me many a 10-hour session of good times. After keeping it in overheating conditions with dust in the air for far too long, it started fucking up with increasing alacrity. For the last six months of its life, we all pretty much knew it was fading. We had to keep the windows open and artificially keep the room cold for the console to work. It was sad when the Red Ring of Death finally showed up, indicating catastrophic hardware failure, but in a way, it was time to move on. 

To a new Xbox! I went through all my old games and cleansed the ones that I could sell and part with. I ended up getting over £70 for my efforts, £28 of which came from Santez's Guitar Hero

 controller. Santez, if you're one of my two readers, know that your sacrifice was not in vain. (and I will definitely, definitely get you another controller if you come back from New York and need to play Guitar Hero.) This means that I ended up paying only £60 for a brand new console! Fantastic, I'm sure you'll agree.

In other, equally significant news, The Election is happening tonight. For 21 months it has pretty much hijac-

ked the second-tier spot in the news which stories about 10-50 non-nationals dying usually occupies. In recent times it has completely overwhelmed all newspapers with vast swathes of red, white and blue, and it's fair to say that in the rest of the 

world, it is Obama's rhetoric of Change, Hope, and most importantly, Pie which has captured the people's imagination far more than McCain's increasingly simpering petulance and Palin's out-of-this-world psycho-mom folksiness. Americans are making an important decision tonight with their ballots. None of the rest of us can vote, but that doesn't mean that we are condemned to be passive spectators of the process. The world's will is firmly behind Obama, and this has resonated strongly in America. Being the Most Hated Country On The Planet is not a badge of honour for most Americans, and knowing that 200 000 people turned out to watch Obama speak in Berlin truly affects them. 

I will be watching the election coverage tonight with a hand-picked retinue of intrepid friends, and we will be equipped with celebration alchohol and commiseration alchohol. All are invited to attend. Whoever wins the election tonight, Politic Blunder will be featuring its second Special on the new president. Tune in or be left with the paltry exclusives and shallow analysis of all the other syndicated broadsheets around.